彭博:為什么中國急于推出自己的數字貨幣?

貨幣問題?更是主權問題!

原創:Bloomberg News數鏈評級ShulianRatings9月12日


作者:Yinan Zhao, Heng Xie, Zheping Huang, and Ling Zeng

譯者:數鏈評級Shulian Ratings

日期:2019年9月11日,GMT + 8上午5:00

原文:www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-09-10/why-china-s-rushing-to-mint-its-own-digital-currency-quicktake


正文
中國人民銀行有望成為第一個發行人民幣數字版本的主要央行,以尋求跟上并控制快速數字化的經濟。然而,與比特幣這樣的加密貨幣不同,處理數字化人民幣不會有任何完全匿名的假設,其價值將與物理人民幣一樣穩定,而人民幣也將保持穩定。還存在一些問題,包括對商業銀行以及已經提供支付服務的螞蟻金服和騰訊控股有限公司等大型科技公司的影響。

The People’s Bank of China is poised to become the first major central bank to issue a digital version of its currency, the yuan, seeking to keep up with -- and control of -- a rapidly digitizing economy. Unlike cryptocurrencies such as Bitcoin, though, dealing in the digital yuan won’t have any presumption of total anonymity, and its value will be as stable as the physical yuan, which will be sticking around too. Some questions remain, including the impact on commercial banks as well as Big Tech companies such asAnt FinancialandTencent HoldingsLtd. that already offer payment services.

中國匆忙的背后是希望以自己的方式管理技術變革。正如一位央行官員所說,貨幣不僅是一個經濟問題,也是一個主權問題。

Behind China’s rush is a desire to manage technological change on its own terms.As one PBOC official put it, currency isn’t only an economic issue, it’s also about sovereignty.


1. 中國央行的計劃是什么?

What’s the plan?

并非所有細節都已公布,但根據中國人民銀行注冊的新專利和官方發言,它可能會起到這樣的作用:消費者和企業會在他們的手機上下載數字錢包并從他們的帳戶中加載數字現金銀行 - 類似于操作ATM機器。然后他們像使用現金一樣,與其他擁有數字錢包的人一起支付款。

Not all the details are out, but according to new patents registered by the PBOC and official speeches, it could work something like this: Consumers and businesses would download a digital wallet on their mobile phone and load the digital cash from their account at a commercial bank -- similar to going to an ATM. They then use that like cash to make and receive payments with anyone else who also has a digital wallet.


2. 大部分交易不都已經是電子交易了嗎?

Aren’t most transactions already electronic?

是。中國正越來越成為無現金社會。

Yes. China is increasingly a cashless society.

即使是小城鎮的街頭食品商販也會更愿意使用移動支付應用,且不會輕易變更。根據研究公司易觀國際(Analysys)的數據,在2019年第一季度,這些應用程序在中國處理了59萬億元人民幣(8.3萬億美元)的交易,比去年同期增長了15%。

Even street-food sellers in small towns will prefer to use a mobile payment app than make actual change. Inthe first quarter of 2019, such apps handled 59 trillion yuan ($8.3 trillion)of transactions in China, up 15% from a year earlier,accordingto researchfirm Analysys.

螞蟻金服的支付寶處理了近一半,騰訊的微信支付處理了其中的三分之一。中國人民銀行表示,所有非現金交易(包括信用卡、借記卡、儲值卡、銀行轉賬和支票等)在2018年總計3.8萬億元。這一趨勢并非中國所獨有:瑞典央行調查發現2018年只有13%的人以現金購買支付,低于2010年的39%。

Ant Financial’sAlipayhandled almost half of that, followed byTencent’s WeChat Pay with a third. The PBOC says all non-cash transactions(which also includes such things as credit, debit and stored-value cards, banktransfers and checks) totaled 3.8 quadrillion yuan in 2018. The trend is hardlyunique to China: Acentral bank surveyinSweden found that only 13% of people in 2018 paid for their most-recentpurchase in cash, down from 39% in 2010.


3. 那么為什么中國人民銀行還會這樣做?

So why is the PBOC doing this?

有重要的監管和政治考慮因素。

There are important regulatory and political considerations.
能夠在轉手時以電子方式跟蹤貨幣,這對于打擊洗錢和其他非法活動非常有用。該項目由前中國人民銀行行長周小川在2018年3月退休啟動。他希望保護中國不要有一天采用像其他人設計和控制的 比特幣 這樣的標準。

Having theability to track money electronically as it changes hands would be useful incombating money laundering and other illegal activities. The project wasstarted by former PBOC Governor Zhou Xiaochuan, who retired in March 2018. Hewanted to protect China from having to some day adopt a standard, like Bitcoin,designed and controlled by others.

Facebook公司計劃在2020年推出自己被稱為天秤座的數字貨幣,可能會加速發展,因為它最終可能加強美元的主導地位,并削弱中國的資本管制。正如中國人民銀行研究局局長王信在7月提出的那樣,可能會產生“經濟,金融甚至國際政治后果”。

Facebook Inc.’s push to introduce its owndigital coin, called Libra, in 2020 may be speeding things up, as it could endup strengthening the dollar’s dominance -- and weakening China’s capitalcontrols. As the head of the PBOC’s research bureau, Wang Xin,putitin July, that could have “economic, financial and eveninternational political consequences.”


4. 它是 加密貨幣 嗎?

Is it a cryptocurrency?

可能不是。

Probably not.

當我們說 加密貨幣 時,我們通常指的是 比特幣 這樣的產品,它使用去中心化的在線分類賬(稱為 區塊鏈 )來驗證和記錄交易。它和其他如以太坊一樣支持匿名轉移而無需中間人或中央銀行。然而,它們價值的大幅波動使它們不適合用作支付手段。

When we say cryptocurrency, we usually mean an offering suchas Bitcoin that uses decentralized, online ledgers known asblockchainto verify and record transactions. It and others such asEthereumsupport anonymous transfers without theneed for a middleman -- or a central bank. The wild volatility in their value,however, makes them ill-suited for use as a means of payment.

天秤座也將是一種 加密貨幣 ,即所謂的穩定幣,100%由一籃子證券和現實貨幣支持,如美元、歐元、英鎊和日元。因為這些波動不大,天秤座的價值也應該穩定。至少,Libra最初將由Facebook、Visa和優步等私人公司經營。當然,中國人民銀行將支持數字化人民幣,但與去中心化 數字貨幣 相反。

Libra will also be a cryptocurrency, but a so-calledstablecoin, 100% backed by a basket of securities andreal-life currencies such as the dollar, euro, pound and yen. Because thosedon’t fluctuate much, Libra’s value should be steady as well. Initially atleast, Libra will be run by private companies including Facebook, Visa andUber. The PBOC will, of course, back the digital yuan, making the currency the opposite of decentralized.它也不確定是否會使用 區塊 鏈 。It’s also not certain that it will use blockchain,either.


5. 為什么不使用現有的貨幣?

Why not use existing coins?

2017年,中國禁止 加密貨幣 交易所和所謂的初始代幣發行,同時廣泛努力清理其金融體系的風險并打擊所謂的影子銀行業務。 加密貨幣 仍然可以交易,但需通過一個更慢、更嚴格的過程。

China banned cryptocurrency exchanges and so-called initial coin offeringsin 2017 amid a broad effort tocleanse riskfrom its financial system and clampdown on so-calledshadow banking. They can still be traded, but through aslower, more restrictive process.

數字貨幣 也可能提供一種將資金轉出中國的方式,可能會增加資本外流,從而削弱人民幣的價值。即使天秤座還未出世,中國官員也要求貨幣當局進行監督。(Facebook的網站在中國被禁止,但許多中國人通過稱為虛擬專用網絡或VPN的解決方案訪問它。)

Digital currencies also could provide a way to move money out of China, potentially adding to capital outflows that would undermine the yuan’s value. Even though Libra isn’t out yet, Chinese officials havecalled for oversightby monetary authorities. (Facebook’s website is banned in China, but many Chinese access it via a work-around called avirtual private network, or VPN.)


6. 為什么不使用 區塊 鏈 ?

Why not use blockchain?

中國人民銀行已經考慮過這一點,但研究人員對該技術是否能夠支持大量同步交易表示懷疑。根據另一位中央銀行官員穆長春的說法,中國2018年的雙11購物節的支付需求達到每秒92,771筆交易,遠高于 比特幣 的 區塊 鏈 所能支持的交易。

The PBOC has considered it, but researchers have expressed doubts about whether the technology would be able to support a large volume of simultaneous transactions. China’s annual Singles’Day shopping gala in 2018 had payment demand peaking at 92,771 transactions per second, far above what Bitcoin’s blockchain could support, according to another central bank official, MuChangchun.


7. 隱私怎么樣?

How about privacy?

穆長春說,銀行希望在匿名和打擊金融犯罪的必要性之間“取得平衡”,但目前還不清楚這意味著什么。央行表示,用戶信息不會完全暴露給銀行。但是,用戶身份可能會與個人錢包掛鉤,從而為當局提供了進入人們生活的另一個窗口。央行副行長范一飛在2018年的一篇文章中建議,銀行可能需要每天提交交易信息,并且可能會對個人交易設置上限。

The bank wants to “strike a balance” between anonymity and the need to crack down on financial crimes, Mu said, but it’s unclear what that means. The PBOC has said that user information won’t be completely exposed to banks. But user identities will likely be tied to individual wallets, giving authorities another window into people’s lives. PBOC Deputy Governor Fan Yifei suggested in an article in 2018 that banks may need to submit daily information on transactions and that there could be caps on transactions by individuals.


8. 什么時候到來?

When’s it coming?

似乎很快。

Soon, it seems.
穆長春于8月份表示, 數字貨幣 “呼之欲出”。中國人民銀行至少從2014年開始研究 數字貨幣 ,并且一直在招聘一個專門的研究機構。中央規劃提到了有關 數字貨幣 的研究和創新,以使深圳這個毗鄰香港的技術中心在2025年之前進入世界級城市。

Mu said in August that the digital cash is “close to being out.” The PBOC has been looking into a digital currency since at least 2014, and it’s beenrecruitingstaff for a dedicated institute. Research and innovation regarding digital currencies was mentioned in the grandplanto make Shenzhen, the technology hub next to Hong Kong, into a world-class city by 2025.


9. 人們會用它嗎?

Will people use it?

很難說。

It’s hard to say.
中國人民銀行的數字錢包只是一個錢包,至少目前如此,而現有的支付寶和微信支付深深植根于社交媒體、電子商務、乘車、賬單支付、投資和其他功能等整個世界。總部位于上海的開源 區塊 鏈 平臺Neo創始人達鴻飛表示,他不明白為什么普通公眾會選擇中國人民銀行的 數字貨幣 ,其并非非像支付寶一樣方便。

The PBOC’s digital wallet is just a wallet, at least fornow, whereas the incumbents Alipay and WeChat Pay are deeply embedded in awhole world of social media, e-commerce, ride-hailing, bill-paying, investmentsand other functions. Da Hongfei, the Shanghai-based founder of open-sourcedblockchain platform Neo, said he can’t see why the general public would choosethe PBOC’s digital currency over something as handy as Alipay.


10. 銀行將如何受到影響?

How will banks be affected?

主要是記賬。

Mainly inbookkeeping.

數字現金必須與常規儲蓄分開,因為它代表實際流通中的資金(在中央銀行業務中稱為M0),而不是所謂的活期存款(M1),銀行用來向公司和家庭再貸款。商業貸方將在中央銀行存入100%的儲備以換取 數字貨幣 ,然后將其分配給零售用戶。雙層系統還減輕了中國人民銀行履行盡職調查、改造IT系統和回答客戶請求的負擔。

Digital cash would have to be kept separate from regular savings, because it represents money in actual circulation (known in central banking parlance as M0), not the so-called demand deposits (M1) whichbanks use to lend out again to companies and households.Commercial lenders would deposit 100% worth of reserves at the central bank in exchange for digital currency, which it then distributes to retail users. The two-tier system also reduces the burden on the PBOC to perform due diligence, revamp ITsystems and answer client requests.


11. 其他經濟影響?

Any economicimpact?

可能不會馬上。

Probably not immediately.

由于中國人民銀行的 數字貨幣 旨在取代現金,它不會對廣義貨幣供應產生重大影響,因此其對貨幣政策的影響可能是中性的。根據中國人民銀行 數字貨幣 研究機構2018年發表的一篇文章,如果 數字貨幣 被廣泛接受并鼓勵人們持有更多現金,銀行存款可能會下降,但影響將是可控的。在更遙遠的未來,央行可能會使用 數字貨幣 來幫助引導經濟。

As the PBOC’s digital money is designed toreplace cash, it won’t have a big impact on the broad money supply, and therebyits affect on monetary policy will likely be neutral. If the digital currencyis widely accepted and people are encouraged to hold more cash, bank depositscould decline, but the impact will be manageable, according to a2018 articlefromthe PBOC’s digital currency research institute. In a more distant future, thecentral bank might use digital currency to help steer the economy.

2018年10月公開的專利申請描述了一種貨幣,要求銀行在轉移資金之前輸入借款人和利率的細節。這可以讓中國人民銀行在其認為合適的情況下更積極地控制銀行貸款和直接融資。此外,如果中國需要轉向非常規貨幣政策工具包,數字化貨幣將允許其對持有數字現金的人采用負利率。

Patent filings made public in October 2018 described a currency that would require banks making loans to input details about borrowers and interest rates before funds could be transferred. That could allow the PBOC to more proactively control bank lending and direct funding where it deems appropriate.Furthermore, should there be a need for China to turn to an unconventional monetary policy toolkit, digitized currency would allow it to apply negative rates even for people holding digital cash.


12.其他央行在做什么?

What are other central banks doing?

烏拉圭已經開展了一項名為e-Peso的試點計劃,受到國際貨幣基金組織的贊揚。委內瑞拉有一個名為石油的有爭議的項目,瑞典的瑞典央行正在探索電子克朗。上個月,英格蘭銀行行長馬克卡尼呼吁類似天秤座的儲備貨幣結束美元的統治地位。2019年初國際清算銀行的一項匿名調查顯示,大多數全球央行都在參與理論概念研究。

Uruguay has done apilot program,called e-Peso, that was praised by the International Monetary Fund. Venezuela has a controversial offering calledthe petro, and Sweden’s Riksbank is exploring ane-krona. Last month, Bank of England Governor Mark Carney called for Libra-like reserve currency to end thedollar’s dominance. An anonymous survey by the Bank for International Settlements in early 2019 showed most of the global central banks are participating in theoretical and conceptual research.


參考資料:

·QuickTakes on Facebook’sLibracoin,stablecoins, what happened toICOs,Tetherandblockchain.

·Bloomberg Opinion’s Andrew Browne on China’scrypto ambitions.

·Sweden’s Riksbank has ane-krona projectwellunder way.

·Readmore on the PBOC’s thinking on Libra.

·The PBOC’s deputy governorwritingon why central banks should lead the wayon digital currencies.


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